The Agent Pool Is Shrinking. Here's Why That's Good News for Experienced Agents.

The real estate agent count is falling, and if you have been in this business a while, that is not a bad thing for you. Here's why. In late 2022, membership in the National Association of Realtors peaked around 1.6 million. By early 2025, it had dipped below 1.5 million, and by mid-year it sat near 1.45 million. That is roughly 150,000 fewer agents than at the peak. Headlines call it an exodus. I call it a correction, and after 37 years and more than 4,000 transactions, I have seen exactly this kind of reset before. The agents who survive, and thrive, are the ones who understand what the contraction is really doing.

Here is the number most agents miss. The attrition has been concentrated among the least experienced people in the profession. The share of agents with two years or less in the business has shrunk, while agents with 16-plus years of experience now make up almost half of the active agent population. The median age of a working real estate agent has climbed into the late 50s. Think about what that actually means. The crowd that entered during the easy years is thinning out. The professionals who built their businesses on relationships, referrals, and repeat clients are still standing. The contraction is not removing experience. It is removing the noise around it.

What a Leaner Field Does for You

When there were 1.6 million people hanging licenses, everyone competed for the same phone calls. Every seller's inbox was full of mailers. Every listing got dozens of showings and a pile of unqualified offers. That is not a market, that is a lottery. A leaner field changes the math. Fewer agents mean fewer distractions for your clients and more attention on you. Buyers and sellers are already overwhelmed by the process. When the pool shrinks, the professionals with proven results and real follow-through stand out without shouting. Your reputation compounds when there are fewer voices in the room.

This is not a theory. I closed my first deals in 1989, and I have now been through boom markets, crash markets, rate spikes, and every reset in between. Each time, headlines predicted the end of the profession. Each time, the agents who treated this like a career, not a hobby, came out stronger. The ones who treated it like easy money did not. The pattern has never changed, and it is not changing now.

Your Experience Is Portable

Here is the part that matters most if you feel stuck. Everything you have built, your reputation, your relationships, your track record, is portable. It does not live in your brokerage's office or on its sign. I learned that after 17 years running my own boutique brokerage and 15 years before that in my family's business. At 55, I chose to leave what I had built and move my business to a different model. It was not an easy call. It was the disciplined one. The business did not come with me because of a building. It came because clients and agents trusted what I had done for decades.

The Model Question Every Seasoned Agent Should Ask

The industry data backs up what I felt when I made that move. In 2025, roughly 16% of agents changed brokerages. Experienced agents are already voting with their feet. And where are they going? Virtual and tech-enabled brokerages posted nearly 12% net volume growth last year versus less than 2% across the traditional top 100. The largest cloud-based brokerage now operates with roughly 82,000 agents. The model that rewards your production, puts a ceiling on what you pay, and lets you own part of the infrastructure is the one gaining ground. I am not telling you to join any specific company. I am telling you to ask your current one what it does with your production after it covers its costs.

I lived on the other side of that question. For seventeen years, I was the owner. I know what it costs to keep a physical brokerage running, and I know what that means for the agents producing under that roof. The honest truth is that most traditional models extract value from experienced agents year after year without ever asking what the agent wants to build next. When you have decades of relationships and a reputation that took a lifetime to earn, you owe it to yourself to check whether your model is an expense or an investment in your next chapter.

The Bottom Line

So yes, there are fewer agents today than there were two years ago. That is not a bug in the market. That is the market returning to normal, and normal rewards the people who have been through it before. I closed those four thousand deals with a disciplined mindset and a competitive attitude, and I plan to keep doing it for another decade. If you are an experienced agent who has been watching the headlines and wondering whether your longevity still counts, it does. More than ever. The question is not whether you belong in this business. It is whether the model you chose deserves you.

If that lands with you, I am always available for a straight conversation with another agent who has been in the trenches. No pitch, no pressure. Just two professionals talking through the real numbers and the real options. Let's Go!

"Just worked with Craig Lerch and his team again and the results were again amazing! He sold my first home in 12 hours, my mother's home also in record time,and my last home in 72 hours during a snowstorm. He is the best and his team is an absolute dream to work with. If you are looking for 'THE BEST,' call Craig. He and his team will get it done!"

Donna Gormley